BEIJING, CHINA – NOVEMBER 9: Chinese President Xi Jinping attends a meeting with Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto (not pictured) at the Great Hall of the People on November 9, 2024 in Beijing, China.
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China affirmed its recent policy shifts and stressed plans to boost growth in a high-level economic planning meeting that wrapped up Thursday, according to a daily evening news broadcast on state-run CCTV.
The report came after the close of the mainland China market. The iShares China Large-Cap ETF (FXI) rose by 0.8% in premarket trading, before paring gains.
The annual economic planning conference, led by Chinese President Xi Jinping, called for proactive fiscal policy, as well as increasing the deficit and issuing more ultra-long bonds next year, according to the state media report. It added that the meeting also affirmed plans for China to moderately loosen monetary policy, such as by lowering interest rates.
That sentiment echoed a high-level Monday meeting of the Politburo, the second-highest circle of power in the ruling Chinese Communist Party. That readout’s use of “moderately loose” monetary policy had not appeared since the depths of the global financial crisis in 2008. That signaled a heightened urgency to shore up China’s ailing economy and prepare for a potential trade war with the U.S., as Donald Trump returns to the White House.
China typically announces the full-year growth target and fiscal deficit at an annual parliamentary meeting in March.
The Thursday report “implies the government will set growth target at around 5%, the same as this year, as the press release states economic growth should stay stable,” said Zhiwei Zhang, president and chief economist at Pinpoint Asset Management, in emailed comments.
“The message about raising fiscal deficit and interest rate cuts is well expected,” Zhang added. “The direction of policies is clear, but the size of stimulus matters, which we probably will find out only after the U.S. announces tariffs on China’s exports.”
Trump has vowed to impose tariffs of 10% on all U.S. imports of Chinese goods after he takes office in January.
China’s leaders on Thursday noted an increase in “external challenges,” and in broad strokes called for increasing consumption, boosting effective investment and supporting technological innovation, according to CNBC’s translation of the Chinese state media report.
Bruce Pang, chief economist of Greater China at JLL, said the Thursday meeting indicated that top leaders are shifting away from a focus on the industrial sector toward consumption and investment. “This pivot underscores the pressing need to enhance domestic demand to better navigate external uncertainties,” he said in a note.
The report of the meeting also noted plans to open up China’s economy, even if Beijing did not receive something in return. China this year offered residents of Japan and several other countries the ability to visit for at least two weeks without a visa, while Japan has maintained tighter requirements for Chinese visitors.
Ramp up of policy support
The Politburo on Monday vowed to implement “more proactive” fiscal tools and “moderately loose” monetary policies in 2025, while ramping up “unconventional counter-cyclical adjustments” to boost domestic consumption “on all fronts,” according to a readout by state-owned Xinhua.
“I take the messages from this [economic work] conference and the Politburo meeting positively,” Zhang said. “I think the shift of policy this week is clearly more significant than that took place in the last week of September.”
Chinese officials have ramped up stimulus measures since late September, including several interest rate cuts, looser property purchase requirements, liquidity support for stock markets and a 10-trillion-yuan ($1.4 trillion) stimulus package over five years to alleviate local government debt problems.
Chinese stocks surged after the initial stimulus announcements, before trading range-bound.
Recent economic data indicated that measures up to now have not proven sufficient to offset persisting deflationary pressure in the economy, fueling investors’ hopes that Beijing would further amp up its stimulus measures to restore growth.
The country’s consumer price inflation fell to a five-month low in November, while a deflation in wholesale prices lingers, with the producer price index sliding for the 26th straight month.
Chinese authorities have reiterated Beijing’s intention to boost consumption throughout the year. Little in terms of policies has been put in place, other than a subsidy program to incentivize trading in used household appliances and electronic goods.
While the policy details and specific figures will only be announced at the National People’s Congress next March, it is widely expected that Beijing will keep its next year’s GDP growth target at “around 5%.”
Policymakers may also set a higher-than-usual budget deficit target of up to 4% of gross domestic product, some economists forecast, which would allow more central government borrowing to support the flagging economy.
