But will France walk the talk in Africa and Ukraine?   
4 weeks ago |

French President Emmanuel Macron has been making some strong statements and moves. He was one of the strongest voices at last week’s European Political Community summit where he advocated boosting collective European defence instead of relying on US security guarantees. This assumes salience in the wake of Trump’s victory in the recent US presidential polls. Trump’s testy relationship with European Nato partners the first time he was president had created much strain in Trans-Atlantic ties. There is a threat of a repeat as he re-enters the White House coming January. And the flashpoint, of course, is Ukraine. 

Trump has signalled for months during his campaign that he won’t support open-ended military aid for Ukraine in the face of Russia’s war of aggression. He has even promised to end that war quickly. But campaign promises and actually government policy are two different things. So it remains to be seen how Trump eventually plays this one. But there’s no denying that Europe has to do more not only for its own security but also in terms of supporting Ukraine. It needs to take over the mantle of weapons transfers to Ukraine from the US should Washington dial back its support for Kyiv. And of course, France and Germany, the two big pillars of EU, need to step up. 

But Germany’s government just fell apart and the country will head into polls early next year. In this scenario, it’s unlikely Berlin will do more for Ukraine than what it is already doing today. So this leaves France and Macron to finally do some heavy lifting and walk the talk for the EU. And Macron has something to prove. 

For all his positive statements, Macron’s presidency hasn’t really boosted France’s strategic heft in international geopolitics. In Africa, Macron has taken a huge beating. In a significant number of Francophone countries of the continent, France is being roundly rejected. Macron’s 2023 Africa tour was disastrous with several African leaders complaining about France’s paternalistic attitude with Paris continuing to view French Africa as its own fiefdom. In fact, this attitude is precisely the reason that Russia has managed to make inroads in many countries of the Sahel and West Africa. In the coup in Burkina Faso in 2022, Russian flags were hoisted and the French embassy was attacked. 

Macron is now trying to stem these setbacks by reaching out to Morocco. In a smart move, in July he recognised Moroccan sovereignty over the Moroccan Sahara. He reiterated this recently on a state visit to Morocco, emphasising that Rabat’s Autonomy Plan for the Sahara is the only realistic solution to the issue. 

It will be recalled that the Moroccan Sahara issue is a leftover baggage from Africa’s colonial past. The Moroccan Sahara was a Spanish exclave until the Green March of November 1975 when Moroccans peacefully reunited this part of the Sahara with Morocco proper. But the Algeria-backed separatist group Polisario Front carried out an armed struggle against the Moroccan state. A 1991 UN-brokered ceasefire was supposed to lead to a referendum. But that never happened because of Polisario’s – and Algeria’s – intransigence. In fact, Morocco’s monarch King Mohammed VI referred to this in his speech on the occasion of the 49th anniversary of the Green March last week, pointing out that Polisario never allowed a proper census to be carried out in its Tindouf camps for Sahrawis. 

Coming back to Macron, his recognition of Moroccan sovereignty over the Moroccan Sahara is driven by the desire to use Morocco’s growing strategic influence over Francophone Africa to preserve Paris’s interests. With Morocco having emerged as a champion of inter-African cooperation and development, Macron hopes that a new path can also be created to reset France’s ties with Francophone African nations, and stem Russia’s growing footprint in the region. 

This is all very well. But Macron and France will really have to delivery for this strategy to work. France can only regain the trust of Francophone Africa if it genuinely changes its attitude and establishes relationships of true equality. Openly and clearly apologising for its colonial past would be a start. And if Paris really wants to lead a new security position for Europe, it should lift restrictions on long-range weapons supplied to Ukraine. It’s time for action.              



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Views expressed above are the author’s own.



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