In the 2018 Karnataka Assembly elections, 77% of the seats witnessed bipolar contests, which meant that only two parties were effectively fighting the election in those constituencies. This marked a shift from the 2013 and 2008 elections when less than 50% of the seats witnessed a bipolar contest. Moreover, multi-cornered fights involving more than three parties have become a rarity.
Table 1
The table shows the percentage share of seats which witnessed uncompetitive (less than two effective parties), bipolar (two), triangular (three) and fragmented (more than three) contests in 2008, 2013 and 2018
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The share of bipolar seats increased from 46% to 77%, while the share of triangular seats reduced from 43% to 17% between 2008 and 2018. The share of fragmented seats peaked at 19% in 2013 but was reduced to just 4% in the 2018 polls.
Although the total number of parties competing for a seat is determined by the nominations submitted, the “effective number of parties” within a constituency is based on the votes they obtain. Utilising the Laakso and Taagepera method to examine the distribution of vote shares among parties within a constituency allows us to ascertain the actual number of parties which are effectively competing for that specific seat. This approach considers both the number of parties participating and their respective vote shares to calculate the effective parties involved. This video clarifies the method.
This sharp turn towards bipolar contests from triangular and multi-party contests was recorded across all regions though the degree of change varied.
Map
The map shows the geographical divisions for the six regions in Karnataka— Bengaluru, Central, Coastal, Kalyana (Hyderabad Karnataka), Kittur (Mumbai Karnataka), and Southern
Table 2
The table shows the percentage share of seats which witnessed uncompetitive, bipolar, triangular and fragmented contests in 2008, 2013 and 2018 across the six regions of the State
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In every region, more than 70% of the seats recorded bipolar contests in 2018, as seen in the table. In the Central, Hyderabad and Southern regions of the State, a majority of the seats recorded tripolar contests in 2008 and gradually shifted towards bipolar contests in 2013. Bipolar contests peaked in 2018. In the other three regions, while a majority of the seats had witnessed bipolar contests even in 2008 and 2013, the share of such constituencies surged in 2018. For instance, the strike rate was 49% for the BJP and 35% for the Congress in 2018 in bipolar contests.
Table 3A
The table lists the BJP’s strike rate (wins/seats contested) in bipolar and triangular contests in the last three elections
Table 3B
The table lists the Congress’s strike rate (wins/seats contested) in bipolar and triangular contests in the last three elections
Table 3C
The table lists JD(S)‘s strike rate (wins/seats contested) in bipolar and triangular contests in the last three elections
Tables 3A and 3B show a general trend. The Congress’s strike rate is weaker in bipolar seats and stronger in triangular contests. Even in 2013, when it formed the government, this was the case, though the gap was narrow. The BJP’s strike rate is stronger in bipolar seats and weaker in triangular contests, except in 2013 when it lost. This shows that the BJP has an edge in bipolar contests. Karnataka elections have increasingly recorded bipolar fights in the majority of the seats.
This trend is not unique to Karnataka, which is going to the polls in May. An analysis of Uttar Pradesh’s recent elections shows that the share of seats recording bipolar contests rose from 8% in 2012 to 71% in 2022. There, too, the BJP had an edge in bipolar seats with a strike rate of 71% in 2022, while the Samajwadi Party had a strike rate of just 27% in bipolar seats.
vignesh.r@thehindu.co.in
Source: Lok Dhaba, A repository of Indian election results, A project of the Trivedi Center for Political Data (TCPD), Centre for the Study of Developing Societies
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